JOBOS, Isabella, Puerto Rico (Friday, February 8, 2013) - The 2013 Rip Curl Pro Puerto Rico presented by seepuertorico.com will begin its waiting period tomorrow and surfline.com, official forecasters of the inaugural event gave a breakdown on what to expect for waves this year.
Brief Overview: Small scale trade windswell is on tap for the weekend. Solid NNW/N swell and NE/ENE trade windswell is expected for early/mid next week but conditions will be a major issue due to gusty trade winds.
SWELL/SURF: Small scale ENE trade windswell offers 1-2′ (knee-thigh) surf with weak waist high waves on occasion.
WIND/WEATHER: Light E trade winds early bend more ENE and increase into the 9-14kt range late in the morning and into the afternoon. Mostly sunny with a slight chance of passing showers.
SWELL/SURF: Small scale ENE trade windswell offers 1-2′ (knee-thigh) surf with weak waist high waves on occasion. We may see a bit more short period NE/ENE wind chop develop late in the day due to the increase in our local NE winds.
WIND/WEATHER: E/ENE trade winds 9-14kts early bend more NE and increase into the 12-17kt range with higher gusts possible during the afternoon. Mostly sunny with a slight chance of passing showers.
SWELL/SURF: A mix of rising NW/NNW swell and developing NE trade windswell mix puts 4-5′ surf in the water during the early part of the day. More NNW swell and stronger NNE windswell develops during the second half of the day and will offer overhead+ surf during the afternoon.
WIND/WEATHER: NE/ENE trade winds 15-20kts. Mostly sunny with a slight chance of passing showers.
SWELL/SURF: Solid NNW/N swell and NE/ENE trade windswell mix offers 8-10′ (well overhead to double overhead) surf with potentially bigger sets on occasion. Mixed up and challenging conditions due to the swell size and local winds.
WIND/WEATHER: ENE trade winds 15-20kts. Mostly sunny with a slight chance of passing showers.
SWELL ANALYSIS AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK
We are expecting mostly minor trade windswell on Saturday and Sunday in the 1-2′ range with a few weak waist high peaks on occasion. As our trade winds increase during the afternoon on Sunday there is the potential for a few bigger windswell peaks but any surf that does develop will likely be weak and disorganized.
Low pressure moves off the US East Coast on Friday and will quickly strengthen into a powerful storm over the NW Atlantic overnight Friday and into Saturday. Current computer model projections suggest this storm will produce 45-55kt+ winds over the NW Atlantic on Saturday. This system slides slowly eastward on Sunday before exiting into the north Atlantic early next week. High pressure builds over the western Atlantic on Monday and remains in place north of the island for next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Though this system has yet to develop there is high level of confidence that we will see a significant wave event for Puerto Rico early/mid next week.
We are expecting new NW/NNW swell to fill in through the day on Monday as NE trade windswell develops. This will set up 4-5′ (shoulder-head high range) surf during the morning on Monday. As more NNW swell fills in an our NE trade windswell component becomes more established we should see overhead+ surf develop during the afternoon with possibly bigger sets before dark. The size of the surf during the second half of the day and the local trade winds will result in very challenging/difficult conditions at the contest site.
Looking into Tuesday we are expecting a solid mix of NNW/N swell and NE/ENE trade windswell to peak with well overhead to double overhead surf at Jobos. There is even the potential for larger sets on occasion depending on the exact strength of the system over the NW Atlantic this weekend. The size of the surf and the local trade winds will result in very challenging/difficult conditions at the contest site.
We are expecting N swell and ENE trade windswell to ease some for Wednesday but we are still looking for well overhead surf through the day. Our E/ENE trade winds also look to relax some into the 10-15kt range so conditions should be more manageable at the contest site.
Needless to say, this storm has not yet developed so we will need to continue to monitor the situation and validate the computer models against the observations once the low pressure system moves into the NW Atlantic late this week and over the weekend. Stay tuned as we fine tune the forecast outlook over the coming days.
Weak high pressure extends towards Puerto Rico on Saturday before the tail end of a frontal boundary approaches on Sunday. This will result in mostly sunny weather with the slight chance of passing showers over the weekend. Winds are generally light during the AM on Saturday before the typical trade winds come up during the afternoon. A notch stronger trade winds are expected on Sunday, especially during the afternoon.
The strong area of high pressure that builds over the western Atlantic on Monday will result in moderate to strong NE/ENE trade winds on Monday. Moderate to strong (15-20kt) ENE trade winds continue on Tuesday. E/ENE trade winds look to ease a notch into the 10-15kt range for next Wednesday.